The Retort

Bet on the Long Shot

September 25th, 2009 by Rob Barnosky Of The Retort Staff

As we approach the end of the baseball season and enter football season, there is only one thing that sports fans can bet on - uncertainty. Year after year I’ve watched ESPN and read Sports Illustrated looking for some hint as to what to expect in the upcoming season, but every year I’m surprised.

Experts who are paid to know a specific sport are consistently wrong. If sports experts were evaluated on their performance the same way that athletes are, they would be the equivalent of Montana’s Ryan Leaf. Experts and commentators aren’t ignorant or uninformed, they actually know a great deal about sports - much more than most fans - but still perform statistically poor. Earlier this year many “experts” picked the Yankees to be the third best team in the Major League Baseball’s American League East, but now, near the end of the baseball season, it appears that the Yankees will finish the season with the best record in the MLB. One of the analysts of that opinion is now saying the Yankees as frontrunners to win the World Series, but as a Yankee fan this does not comfort me at all.

On September 1st Oklahoma Quarterback Sam Bradford was favored to win the Heisman Trophy and potentially lead his team to another title game. As I write this on September 9th Bradford is essentially out of the hunt for the Heisman and one more loss will take his team out of the running for a national title. As you have heard before, “that’s why they play the games”. You can never predict when a freak injury will leave the choice team without their star quarterback. Every team’s performance will ebb and flow over the course of a season. The winner isn’t always the one with the best record, but rather a combination of luck, current performance, and injuries.

My point here is that when you call your bookie to place a bet on the outcome of any season, don’t bet on the favorite. Don’t pick the Yankees, Celtics or Patriots. Bet on the long shot, the team that ESPN isn’t picking. Pick the upset and you will look like a genius and win big when your number is called. As Shug Jordan said “Always remember Goliath was a forty-point favorite over David.”